The Latino Vote – Know Your Market
If You Want The Vote, You Need To Understand The Voter
This is an abstract from the upcoming book “The Latino Vote: The Future of American Politics”.
In the last presidential elections the Republican Party stated:
“We can’t win another presidential election without the Latino Vote”
So… What happened?
This post will concentrate on understanding the voter, the target market, the person we want to influence and sell on our policy, on campaign contributions, and to get their vote.
Businesses use Target Marketing to segment and identify the group of people or even the person you want as your customer. More seasoned marketers call this your Avatar. An Avatar is your ideal client and you have to know everything about them. Not just their income level, age, and political preference; I mean everything. You have to know what they think, how they feel, what’s important to them, where they come from and where they are going. This is what we’ll learn about the Latino or Hispanic Voter.
Influence takes time. If you want to deport my mother, or my aunt, you just lost your influence. Don’t just sell to me, don’t just tell me to vote for you. Don’t change your tune from election to election. If you don’t understand me, you will not influence me.
“To Get the Vote, You Need to Understand the Voter!”
Voting Power: The Changing Color of America
The growth of Latinos impacts national politics exponentially. Yes, the Latino vote is present in state and local elections, however the impact is much greater in positions that influence national policy such as presidential and congressional elections.
This chapter will show how the growing population of Latinos will affect local, state, and national elections. Because Latinos grow more in large metropolitan areas in states with many electoral votes and congressman the influence will grow faster than the population.
Let’s dig into this concept to see how the Latinos influence is exponential. On the surface Latinos are a growing majority but still a minority nationwide. In reality they are a majority in large States, in those that carry many electoral votes and have an overwhelming majority of congress representatives. What does this mean? It means that by voting in key States, Latinos can change national policy.
In July 8, 2015 the newspaper LA Times declared:
“It’s official: Latinos now outnumber whites in California”.
This is not just true in California. In an article published on July 6th 2015 by US News they wrote:
“Minorities will outnumber whites in the USA in one generation according to the Census Bureau. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2014 there were more than 20 million children under 5 years old living in the U.S., and 50.2 percent of them were minorities.
Parents who identified their child as white with Hispanic origin were the largest minority, making up 22 percent of the 19.9 million children under age 5, followed by African American children, who make up 15 percent.”
Sometime in 2013, there was a hint that soon Latinos would outnumber whites to form the largest ethnic group within California, but demographers could not confirm that until new population figures were announced by the Census Bureau. However, demographers were not wrong and the puzzle to determining whether Latinos have outnumbered whites in California was solved when finally, the Census Bureau released the new population figures in the summer of 2014.
In the new tally, it was found that as of July 1, 2014, approximately 14.99 million Latinos reside in California thereby edging out the white’s population in the state, which at that time stood at 14.92 million. While this may not have come as a surprise because demographers had previously shed some light on the emerging changes in demography between the Latinos and white’s population in California sometime in 2013, however, this shows that California and some other states are witnessing an important change in demographics that could have a big influence on the political scene in the nation.
In fact, demographers cited that the change could have occurred in 2013 but owing to a slow population growth, the projections about the shift in population was pushed back. Regardless of the timing or whether the demographers were right or wrong on such projections, the moment seems to have finally come.
As director of the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute at USC Roberto Suro said, “This is sort of the official statistical recognition of something that has been underway for almost an entire generation.”
According to officials, California has now become the first larger state and in overall, the third state without a white plurality after New Mexico and Hawaii. The Latino population in America as of 2015 is estimated to be about 55.4 million, and Los Angeles County and California are cited to have the largest population of Latinos than any other county or state in the country, as new figures reveal. This demographic shift has been waited for, for a long period of time.
According to state figures, in 1970, the Latino population that was tallied reached about 2.4 million representing 12 percent of the California population. In that time, the white’s population was estimated to be 15.5 million and made up more than 75 percent or three-quarters of the residents of the state. By 1990, a seemingly unexpected trend in population changes was witnessed. The Latino population increased to reach 7.7 million in 1990 taking a share of a quarter or 25 percent of California’s population.2
However, at present, the Latino population is quite young having a median age of roughly 29 while the white’s population in California seems to be aging and is estimated to have a median age of 45. This has an implication on growth of the population of Latinos considering that, this is an age that is within the bracket of a productive population in terms of bearing children.
Also, state demographers are projecting that Latinos will grow exponentially to account for close to 49 percent of California’s population by 2060. Suro further says that the population is actually going to accelerate and what we may be witnessing is just the beginning of a new chapter that is going to play out in the next coming generation.
The effects of the growing population of Latinos will not only be experienced in the political scenes, but also in social economic spheres of life in California. For example, a chief demographer serving in the state finance department John Malson has said that a young Latino workforce will help the economy by taking up the positions of retiring baby boomers.
We’ll continue with more on targeting Latino Voters next week…
Would you like an advance copy of the book? Contact me or leave a comment on this post. I’ll send you an early copy of the book before it makes it to the shelve.